What led up to it
The 1920s were a period of rising output and rising share prices in the United States. New investors came into the market, investment trusts multiplied, and a great deal of buying was done on margin: the buyer put down part of the price and borrowed the rest from a broker, who borrowed in turn from the banks. Loans to brokers grew through the decade.
A loan against shares is safe for the lender only while the shares are worth more than the loan. When prices fall, the broker asks for more money, and a borrower who cannot find it is sold out. That mechanism was in place across the market by 1929.
The Federal Reserve was uneasy about lending for speculation, and in August 1929 the Federal Reserve Bank of New York raised its discount rate from 5% to 6%. Industrial output in the United States had already begun to slow that summer.
What happened, in order
- 1920sShare prices rise through the decade. Buying on margin spreads, and loans to brokers grow year after year.
- August 1929The Federal Reserve Bank of New York raises its discount rate from 5% to 6%, with lending for speculation in mind.
- 3 Sept 1929The Dow Jones Industrial Average closes at 381.17. It will not close higher for twenty-five years.
- 24 Oct 1929Black Thursday. Heavy selling at the opening on record volume. Leading bankers meet opposite the Exchange and agree to buy; prices recover much of the day’s loss.
- 28 Oct 1929Black Monday. No support appears and the Dow falls by nearly 13% in the day.
- 29 Oct 1929Black Tuesday. The Dow falls by nearly 12% more, on about 16 million shares, a volume record that stands until 1968.
- 13 Nov 1929The Dow reaches its low for the year, close to half its September level. A partial recovery follows into the spring of 1930.
- 8 July 1932After two more years of falling prices and waves of bank failures, the Dow closes at 41.22, about 89% below the 1929 peak.
- 1933–34Congress passes the Securities Act and the Banking Act in 1933, which creates federal deposit insurance, and the Securities Exchange Act in 1934, which creates the Securities and Exchange Commission.
- 23 Nov 1954The Dow closes above its 1929 peak for the first time.
What changed afterwards
- The Securities Act of 1933 required companies selling securities to the public to register them and disclose their finances.
- The Banking Act of 1933, known as Glass–Steagall, separated commercial banking from investment banking and created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to insure bank deposits.
- The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 created the Securities and Exchange Commission to regulate exchanges and brokers, and gave the Federal Reserve the power to set margin requirements for buying shares.
- A Senate investigation of 1932 to 1934 into banking and stock exchange practices provided much of the evidence on which those laws were built.
What it helps a trader to understand
- Margin works in both directions. Falling prices produced margin calls, margin calls produced forced selling, and forced selling produced lower prices. The loop is mechanical and does not depend on anyone’s opinion.
- The famous days were not the whole fall. Most of the loss came in the slow decline of 1930 to 1932, after a recovery that looked convincing at the time.
- A rescue by large buyers held for part of one day. Support that depends on a few people’s willingness lasts as long as their willingness does.
- Recovery in the index took twenty-five years. A long history of recovering says nothing about how long any one recovery takes.
These are observations about how markets and rules work, drawn from one episode. They are not advice, and they do not say that anything like it will or will not happen again.
What was knowable then?
It is easy to judge an episode once its ending is known. This exercise takes four moments from the timeline above, one at a time. At each it shows only what had been made public by then, asks a hypothetical question with three plain choices, and then shows what came next and what each choice would have meant.
The text headed “what had been made public by then” is this site’s own summary of the record, written afterwards. It is not a contemporary document and nothing in it is a quotation. The position described is imagined. No choice is marked right, there is no score, and nothing is stored.
Moment 1 of 4: August 1929. The curve is drawn as far as this moment and nothing after it is shown.
Illustrative shape, not market data. The curve sketches a share index through the boom, the crash and the long recovery: the same hand-made line as at the top of this page, on a scale of 0 to 100 with no axis values, here drawn only as far as the moment reached.
Moment 1 of 4 · August 1929
What had been made public by then
Share prices have risen through the decade. Buying on margin has spread, and loans to brokers have grown year after year. In August 1929 the Federal Reserve Bank of New York raises its discount rate from 5% to 6%, with lending for speculation in mind.
Suppose someone holds shares, part of them bought on margin. After the rate rise, what would such a holder do?
A hypothetical for study, not advice. It does not say what anyone should have done then, or what to do now.
What is uncertain or disputed
The crash and the Great Depression are linked in memory, but economists do not agree that the first caused the second. Most accounts give more weight to the bank failures of 1930 to 1933, the contraction of money and credit, and the working of the international gold standard, with the crash as the opening shock. The stories of financiers jumping from windows in October 1929 are largely legend. The index figures given are closing levels of the Dow Jones Industrial Average as published by its compiler.
Questions people ask
- How much did the stock market fall in the 1929 crash?
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by nearly 13% on Monday 28 October 1929 and by nearly 12% on Tuesday 29 October. From its peak close of 381.17 on 3 September 1929 to its low of 41.22 on 8 July 1932, it lost about 89%.
- Did the 1929 crash cause the Great Depression?
- Not by itself, on most economists’ reading. The crash destroyed wealth and confidence, but the depth of the Depression is usually put down to the bank failures of 1930 to 1933, the fall in money and credit, and the gold standard. How much weight the crash deserves is still debated.
- How long did the market take to recover after 1929?
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average did not close above its September 1929 peak until 23 November 1954, twenty-five years later. That is the index level alone and takes no account of dividends or of changes in prices generally over the period.
The words on this page
Where this account comes from
The Federal Reserve’s own history pages, the published record of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the United States Senate’s banking inquiry of 1932 to 1934, and contemporary newspaper accounts.
A number is given on this page only where it is famous and certain. Nothing here is a quotation.
Documents
- Stock Exchange Practices: Report of the Committee on Banking and CurrencyUnited States Senate (Senate Report No. 1455, 73rd Congress) · 1934The evidence on banking and stock exchange practices from the Senate inquiry of 1932 to 1934, on which the new laws were built.
- Banking Act of 1933United States Congress · 16 June 1933The separation of commercial from investment banking and the creation of federal deposit insurance.
- Securities Exchange Act of 1934United States Congress · 6 June 1934The creation of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Federal Reserve’s power to set margin requirements.
- A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz · 1963The weight that most accounts give to the bank failures of 1930 to 1933 and the contraction of money and credit.
- Stock Market Crash of 1929Federal Reserve History (an essay on the Federal Reserve’s history pages) · 2013The discount rate rise of August 1929 and the order of the days in October.
These are public documents, named by title, issuer and date. No web addresses are given, because addresses change; the title and the issuer are what to search for. The account above is this site’s summary and does not quote them.
A history for study. Educational information, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. What happened in one episode says nothing certain about what any market will do next.
